Unofficial migration balance simulator
Can migration pay its way?
Tune Australia's migration settings and watch the trade-off between fiscal dividend, skill use, education exports, housing demand, and capital-city pressure.
Migration balance 61 C: balanced but tight
Dividend Pressure
Most like Budget forecast with tight housing
Contribution stack 71
Pressure stack 52
What the levers mean
This is a simplified first model. It treats migration as strongest when the permanent program selects more skilled primary applicants, when overseas skills are used quickly, and when housing delivery can absorb the added demand. It treats high temporary-student load and heavy capital-city concentration as pressure points, even though international education still brings large export income.
Authority base
- Budget Paper No. 3 2026-27: NOM forecasts of 295k in 2025-26, 245k in 2026-27, and 225k from 2027-28.
- Budget Paper No. 2 2026-27: 185k permanent places, over 70% Skill stream, and skills recognition reforms.
- ABS Overseas Migration 2024-25: 306k NOM, 568k arrivals, 263k departures, and 157k temporary-student arrivals.
- ABS Regional Population 2024-25: Capital cities added 258.1k people through overseas migration.
- 2021 Intergenerational Report: Lifetime GDP and fiscal impacts by permanent migrant stream.
- National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, March 2026: 219k homes completed over five Accord quarters.
- ABS international students in balance of payments: Education-related travel exports were $53.6B in 2024-25.